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← Saint Lythans · Forecast skill
The Met Office publishes point forecasts on a fixed grid. We capture them every issue, and compare each one against what Saint Lythans actually measured at the same hour. Positive bias means the forecast was too warm or too windy.
| Lead | N | Temp bias | Temp RMSE | Wind bias | Wind RMSE | Dir MAE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–3h | 503 | -0.7°C | 1.26°C | +13.6 km/h | 14.46 km/h | 77° |
| 3–6h | 495 | -0.7°C | 1.39°C | +14.4 km/h | 15.15 km/h | 78° |
| 6–12h | 963 | -0.7°C | 1.39°C | +14.6 km/h | 15.44 km/h | 78° |
| 12–24h | 1818 | -0.7°C | 1.32°C | +14.9 km/h | 15.81 km/h | 77° |
| 24–48h | 3204 | -0.6°C | 1.32°C | +15.6 km/h | 16.57 km/h | 79° |
| 48h+ | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Valid time (UTC) | Lead | Forecast T | Actual T | Forecast wind | Actual wind |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-15 03:00 | 26h | 11.9°C | 13.9°C | 8 mph | 0 mph |
| 2026-06-15 03:00 | 25h | 12.0°C | 13.9°C | 8 mph | 0 mph |
| 2026-06-15 03:00 | 24h | 12.1°C | 13.9°C | 8 mph | 0 mph |
| 2026-06-15 03:00 | 23h | 11.9°C | 13.9°C | 8 mph | 0 mph |
| 2026-06-15 03:00 | 22h | 11.9°C | 13.9°C | 8 mph | 0 mph |
| 2026-06-15 03:00 |
| 21h |
| 11.9°C |
| 13.9°C |
| 8 mph |
| 0 mph |
| 2026-06-15 03:00 | 20h | 11.9°C | 13.9°C | 8 mph | 0 mph |
| 2026-06-15 03:00 | 19h | 11.9°C | 13.9°C | 7 mph | 0 mph |
| 2026-06-15 03:00 | 18h | 11.8°C | 13.9°C | 7 mph | 0 mph |
| 2026-06-15 03:00 | 17h | 11.8°C | 13.9°C | 7 mph | 0 mph |